Curse

The Last Cruzader · Jan 28, 2007, 02:14 PM // 14:14

I farmed Rajazan for 53 runs, and on the 54th he dropped. It's all based on luck and the chances of getting the green just like the other people stated above.

Ariena Najea · Jan 28, 2007, 02:44 PM // 14:44

This is just simple probability...

When you have a sequence of events, such as the flipping of a coin. Half the time you'll get tails, half heads obviously. Each flip "resets" the probability, every time that you flip the coin it will still be a 50/50 chance of it being heads or tails.

What you're confusing this with is the probability of a given sequence, for example getting 2 heads in a row. Think of tree diagrams here, to get two heads in a row will happen about 25% of the time, 3 heads in a row would be 12.5%, and so on and so forth. However, when you make that 3rd flip, there is still a 50/50 chance of getting a heads or tails, whatever the sequential probability is.

As has been said earlier in the thread, you could even never have a drop. Yes, it's very un-probable, but that's all it is... probability. It's not a definite method of knowing an outcome, it's just a prediction of possible statistics.

~Ariena

Anarion Silverhand · Jan 28, 2007, 02:59 PM // 14:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by SodOffShotgun

the question he asked was already answered

We don't rush in and lock threads 30 seconds after the question is answered. We usually lock threads if they tend to become long and head off-topic.

Patrick Smit · Jan 28, 2007, 03:13 PM // 15:13

if my binomial calculus isn't rusted too much that would come up to P=0.006 (0.6%) that u don't find anything after 100 runs (assumed dropchance of 5%). It means like you are really unlucky ^^

some guy · Jan 28, 2007, 08:26 PM // 20:26

They are just random.

My guild leader got like 10 of them in 1 hour.

Jeremy Untouchable · Jan 28, 2007, 09:06 PM // 21:06

this weekend...me 5 greens..ally member 87 greens...My point is, some people are better farmers. and some are just lucky

Sid Doog · Jan 28, 2007, 10:01 PM // 22:01

I have farmed scar about 50 times and goten 23 of them so almost once ever 2

chicks boy · Jan 28, 2007, 10:04 PM // 22:04

Lol farmed scar eater 12 -15 times, finnaly he drop The green, then i stop farming then i go to UW lol. Seriusly, Scar eater doesnt drop that often on this event, Ecto farming FTW d

Tarkin · Jan 28, 2007, 10:39 PM // 22:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cacheelma

I think we should make a sticky saying "Your drops are NOT depending on other people OUTSIDE your instance."

....maybe at least during any of the 3x drop weekends. I'm kinda tired of these people throwing such myth around, despite Gaile's words.

You belive in everything other say to you?

SodOffShotgun · Jan 28, 2007, 11:00 PM // 23:00

Disbelieving what an authority of the game has said many times does not make you less gullible and smarter than others. It just makes you willfully ignorant especially when even simple logic tells you that chance is a very erratic thing.

bungusmaximus · Jan 29, 2007, 12:20 AM // 00:20

Its just sheer luck people, stop bickering about anti-farming code, farming is challenging enough as it is. The closest thing to anti-farming are random oni-spawns IMO. Why would aNet care about farmers that much that they would invest time in hacking the code just to bug us? i can't see the logic in that. I had one scar eater in about 10 armory runs, i had Vera, jaynes staff x2, geoffers bulwark, sskais sword and some shitty necro/ele greens. All these areas I farmed till my eyes bled long ago already, and still I get the drops. I can't find a pattern in it either, random=luck or bad luck, maybe it's written in the stars :P

//RogueNine · Jan 29, 2007, 12:29 AM // 00:29

Personally Ive had no problem this weekened where I had problems getting anything other weekends. Im pretty sure its just random luck though.

Neo Nugget · Jan 29, 2007, 12:35 AM // 00:35

um i got like 15 scar eaters.....mabye im lucky.

scrinner · Jan 29, 2007, 02:13 AM // 02:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myria

I have made no claims, save that, to the best of my knowledge no one who is in a position to know has said anything definitive about how the drop system operates. Given that, and absent strong evidence to the contrary, any theory is as good as any other.

Nobody has a clue how the drop system operates, Thats true. However the fact that your own drop rate is affected by others is false. Gaile Is Arena Nets representative And she has said it multiple times and well if you want to doubt Arena net who made the game.... well thats rather saddening. But its a fact that the drop rate is not affected by others.

Guldur · Jan 29, 2007, 02:23 AM // 02:23

Well, based on ghial drops:

my friend got 5 in 7 runs.

I got 2 in 25 runs.

So i am guessing that, more then probability, it has to do with farm flags and other evil unknown things.

KANE OG · Jan 29, 2007, 03:37 AM // 03:37

Prediction: Thread closed with the Mod stating, "Drops are random".... after their weekend break of course!

And it's true. No debate whatsoever.

Cacheelma · Jan 29, 2007, 03:45 AM // 03:45

....Do we have to REPEAT all this everytime there is a 3x chance weekend?

Some people would come up with "I don't get any drop this week. It must be that there are too many people farming this weekend so the chance of me getting the drop is less, blah blah blah my alliance said so (as if that means anything) blah blah".

Then some people would say that they've got more drops than usual, while some people would refer to previous Gaile's messages about how people outside your instance don't affect you in ANY way (other than, well, maybe lag). THEN some ignorant individuals would come up with "I don't believe Gaile" or "She lied before" or something like that. Then the mods would close such thread for "Gaile bashing" (although sometimes it don't go that far).

See the trend? or better, REMEMBER the threads?

No? Well, poor you. Here they are.-

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10078129

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10075774

You may notice in the second link above (Darksong something) that Myria also posted similar replies on such thread, in which I've posted some replies to her citing Gaile's words, and then Gaile decided to reply to the thread as well. Clearly she decided to ignore them and instead posted the exact same stuff here, AGAIN.

I guess I'll just copy all this into a text file so I can REPOST it again in the next event.

Pwny Ride · Jan 29, 2007, 03:45 AM // 03:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooty

I've been noticing something weird with the drops this weekend. I've spoken to the guys in my alliance and the same thing is happening for them. I'm going to use probably the most farmed green in Cantha as my example: Scar Eater. I don't actually need scar eaters but i just find farming him quite fun for some reason. Anyways...

With the last triple green drop weekend in Cantha, Scar Eater would drop his green perhaps once every 2 or 3 goes at least and often more than this. This happened even though a very high number of people were farming him.

This event however, Scar Eater seems to be dropping his Green much much less often. e.g. Yesterday I killed him around 8 times before getting the drop and then i got quite a few within a few runs which i thought was probably things working as they should. However today I logged on and farmed him 10-15 times: nothing. Then i went to farm some Kaolin and got plenty of greens. Then I went back to Scar Eater, again nothing after another 10 or so goes. So I am now avoiding him in case of anti farm. I thought I may just have been unlucky and didnt get the drop before anti farm kicked in, however i noticed a number of people in the alliance were complaining of the same thing today.

Could it be that because so many people are farming him his green is being shared across all the farmers? I was under the impression each player had a given chance to get the greens in an instance regardless of what other players were doing. The fact that the event is a blanket triple drop rate seems to support my way of thinking on that. However in that case, why is one particular boss dropping much less frequently than other bosses?

This is YOUR fault. ANYONE should know that if you kill a specific monster too many times your cahnces of aquiring ANY drop from it is minized to the point of never getting anything from it.

More people farming it makes no difference, since maps are set up for you personally, and its dropping less because you farm it too much.

ElinoraNeSangre · Jan 29, 2007, 04:37 AM // 04:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooty

Sunreach dropped first go (lucky me).

No kidding! I've got at least 7 other greens, and I've killed Sunreach over 15 times now, always with a party of 3, and nothing. :P

Edit: gah 16. I hate you Sunreach. :P

Edit again: okay 17th must be the charm; that, or Wammo Koss scared him good because he dropped his shield. After that, Wing Three Blade netted me my first run of Sup vigor! :: dance ::

bungusmaximus · Jan 29, 2007, 06:54 AM // 06:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guldur

Well, based on ghial drops:

my friend got 5 in 7 runs.

I got 2 in 25 runs.

So i am guessing that, more then probability, it has to do with farm flags and other evil unknown things.

Really, I don't want to be the programmer that has to write code to track the whereabouts of every GW player on the aNet servers, that would cause so much overhead that the servers would catch fire. I don't know the exact number of players but there's a shitload of them. It would be way too expensive to store that amount of information. If aNet didn't want people to farm why are all bosses so insanely easy to reach then?